Fantasy Disaster, Seeing Gray, Braves Clinch

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I know.  I know.  It’s been five days since I’ve blogged and the reason is I’m not blogging Fantasy Football this week.  My team was blown out in Week 3 after another horrendous streak of bad luck including but not limited to the Titans putting up over 40 points on the Lions (I started the Lions DST), Romo having a stinker of a game [and 5 points to go with it] and CJ Spiller (my prized RB1) getting injured early in the Bills vs. Browns matchup.  I’m 0-3 and headed in the wrong direction so I’m just going to stop overanalyzing and hope things turnaround before there’s no shot.

I have a good book recommendation in “Seeing Gray in a World of Black and White” by Adam Hamilton.  For those unaware with who Hamilton is, he’s the pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States at Church of the Resurrection in the greater Kansas City area. In the book, Hamilton examines the popular conservative and liberal views on a myriad of topics and highlights the gray area where he finds himself more often than not.

I’m almost always in the “gray” area when it comes to anything, especially relating to issues on politics, morality and religion so I thoroughly enjoyed the book and would recommend it to anyone who thinks there is something wrong with them because they don’t agree with the “left” or the “right.”  Extremists from both sides would probably not be a fan because Hamilton reaches for compromise in the middle.  However, if you find yourself torn when it comes to the aforementioned issues, check it out.

I haven’t talked much about work on my blog but things over at my website continue to go well.  I’ve focused this week on revamping our social media platforms and have already seen a good amount of success.  We have over 10.6K followers on Twitter and are looking to cross 8K fans on Facebook.  I also cranked out a YouTube video this week which was well received and is quickly approaching 1000 views.

My Atlanta Braves clinched a playoff spot last night but I can’t get that excited because of the stupid “play-in game.”  Don’t get me wrong, it was exciting watching the boys pop bottles of champagne and recover from last year’s debacle, but the risk of being “one and done” after a season of hard work hardly seems worth it.  If MLB wants to expand their playoffs, expand the playoffs.  If not, leave it as it is.  Coming up with a one game scenario is not only a tease but really unfair when it comes to the Braves as we have a 5.5 game lead over St. Louis (the second place Wild Card team) and could end up being eliminated by them before the start of the divisional series.

If the races come down to a one game play-in scenario - that’s great.  However, we are far better in the standings and shouldn’t have to “play-in.”  We’ve earned a playoff spot, not a “play-in” spot.

Sore from yesterday’s workout of bench and deadlifts and hungry from depleted protein levels.  I’m headed to lunch so I’ll wrap this up.  Thanks for reading and I’ll see ya next time.

Week 3 TE Start/Sit - Brent Celek or Dennis Pitta?

The second matchup I am wavering on for Week 3 is what to do at TE.  I have to choose between the following:

Brent Celek @ Arizona Cardinals

Dennis Pitta vs. New England Patriots

The Arizona Cardinals have allowed 17.50 fantasy points to TEs, only 4 to Zach Miller but image13.50 to the prolific Rob Gronkowski.  The Pats have allowed 13.8 points to TEs in two games.

Based on the analytical data, the matchup is basically a push.  The experts are narrowly favoring Celek.  I’m becoming more and more inclined to lean on Celek given the fact the Cardinals are going to get to Vick and one has to think aside from a check down to McCoy, Celek is going to be one of his top targets.

Needless to say both are ranked as top 10 tight ends and it’s time to see if I can get anything for Jacob Tamme.

Week 3 Flex Sit/Start Decision - Adrian Peterson or Danny Amendola

My fantasy football quandary this week is perhaps the biggest it’s been and given the fact I’m 0-2 with my toughest matchup yet, a lot rides on two sit/start decisions I’m asking for input on.  The first and most important matchup is what to do at Flex.  Here’s the decision:

Adrian Peterson vs. San Francisco 49ers

Danny Amendola at Chicago Bears

Why I’m leaning towards Amendola: 

imageThe 49ers defense is brutal and has allowed a league-leading 16.10 Fantasy Points towards opposing running backs.  Granted, neither back they’ve faced (Cedric Benson and Kevin Smith) is even in the same sentence as Adrian Peterson the stats are as bland as they get.  Added together, they’ve only allowed 71 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards to opposing running backs.  

Furthering my argument, I’m already starting the number one option of the Vikings offense in Percy Harvin and my opponent has the 49ers defense.  Therefore, to start Peterson would be to rely heavily on the Vikings offense having success against the top defense in the league.  The 49ers have also been good against the pass, only allowing 11.8 fantasy points combined to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson and 9.40 to Megatron last week.  Harvin’s success will probably be minimal but he’s a must-start for my team.

If Harvin and AP are shut out, not only will I not get the points from my WR1 and Flex respectively but my opponent will get big points for his DST.  This is why I think starting Amendola would lower my risk, relying minimally on Harvin and not expecting too much against an ultra talented group.

Why I’m leaning towards Peterson:

imageDespite my argument above, it’s Adrian Peterson!  I’ve already scolded myself thoroughly for sitting AP in Week 1 and every ounce of analytical data I’ve ran between AP and Amendola, favors Peterson.  While the experts are split, the talent of AP generally wins out.

Amendola has the Bears this week and while the matchup is a difficult one, the Bears allowed 13.5 fantasy points to Reggie Wayne at home in week 1.  Jordy Nelson had minimal success last week with 8.40 points.

What do you think?  Tweet me @wnwdotcom or post your thoughts below.

Wheelin’ and Dealin’

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My week got even busier last night for the 2012 version of The Enforcers as I have finally found a clearcut WR1 and rid myself of Chris Johnson. I acquired Percy Harvin (and Denarius Moore) in exchange for Chris Johnson and Marques Colston. While this may look bad on paper based on potential, I approached the situation like a General Manager in pro sports.

The first objective I had this week was to replace Chris Johnson as my RB1. After two weeks and a grand total of 6 Fantasy Points, it was clear I had to do something. I targeted CJ Spiller and paid big to get him. My thoughts on Spiller in a best-case scenario is he is the next Arian Foster, being extremely productive and explosive. Under bad circumstances, his production dramatically decreases and Fred Jackson gets his spot back as the starting Running Back in Buffalo when he returns from injury. I understand the argument but the fact of the matter is I need production now and I have high hopes for Spiller. I still roster Adrian Peterson and Trent Richardson and can role with two RBs should things go south.

Alongside the disappointment of CJ2K, Marques Colston has had a very slow start, only putting up 9 Fantasy Points in two games. Drafted as my WR2, he became my WR1 after I moved Mike Wallace and it was time to see if I could find a better option. I targeted Percy Harvin, Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald but Harvin was atop my list to replace the number two option of Drew Brees (TE Jimmy Graham being number one). While Jones has a better team and QB, there will be weeks when his production is limited due to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez as was more than evident on Monday. Fitz is usually fantasy gold but he’s been limited with the production (or lack thereof) of Cardinals backup quarterback Kevin Kolb.

After watching most of the Vikings at Colts game last Sunday it’s clear they are going to do whatever it takes to get the ball in the hands of Percy Harvin. I already roster Adrian Peterson and usually don’t like to “lean heavy” on any particular team, especially given the fact they are going up against the 49ers defense this week, but Harvin was an exception. Harvin has a real shot to be a top Fantasy wideout this year and has already put up 21 fantasy points in two games with no end in site. Barring injury, he’s legit and will be a nice compliment to my WR2 in Malcom Floyd and WR3 in Danny Amendola.

I had one waver pickup at 2AM this morning as I added 49ers backup RB Kendall Hunter and dropped Denarius Moore (who I picked up in the Harvin trade). Hunter is one of the most talented backups in the league and plays behind the sometimes brittle Frank Gore. I had hoped to also add Lance Moore (who I could have picked up in the Spiller deal) but missed out to another team. Moore would have been a safety blanket but I feel like barring injury, I’m solidified with an WR1 and rotating out my WR2.

None of my players are in play tonight with New York Giants at Carolina so I’ll be rooting for Cam to shred the Giants secondary. My opponent doesn’t roster a player from either team so I’m good on that front as well. Enjoy the game tonight and I’ll update again if there is anything blog-worthy.

Week 3 Lineup Beginning to Take Shape

I had three waver claims set to process this morning with only one being completed as I imagepicked Brent Celek back up to fill my empty roster spot. My lineup looks to be taking shape heading into Week #3. While I still roster Chris Johnson, I have a new RB1 in CJ Spiller with Trent Richardson as my RB2 this weekend and Adrian Peterson my current Flex. Here’s a look at my lineup for Week 3 on hump day:

QB Tony Romo
RB1 CJ Spiller
RB2 Trent Richardson
WR1 Marques Colston
WR2 Malcom Floyd
TE Brent Celek
Flex Adrian Peterson
DST Lions
K Mason Crosby

As much as I would like to sit Colston given his slow start, he’s playing Kansas City at home this weekend. The Chiefs have given up 34.70 fantasy points to WRs, ranking #6 in the young season. I feel like it’s only a matter of time until he breaks out and while my patience is wearing thin, he is still the best WR on my RB-heavy team.

Malcom Floyd has a tougher match-up against the Falcons but everyone is ranking him higher than my bench guys of Danny Amendola, Heyward-Bey and Kendall Wright. The only possible name I would play in favor of Floyd would be the scorching Amendola who could also play as my flex.

Speaking of which AP is on tap to play Flex for me this week and as bad as I hate the matchup against the 49ers, what did I say about sitting AP? It’s a week-to-week league and while Adrian wasn’t bad last week against the Colts (80 total yds 60ru/20rec), he was not Danny Amendola either (20 points off 160 ReYd and a TD). The fact he didn’t score against the Colts was at least partially due to the Vikings coming from behind but if they had to come from behind to the Colts, what happens against the much better 49ers?

Needless to say, decisions are going to have to be made but this week is “must win” for me. I’m 0-2 and regardless of the points being there, they weren’t and I’ve got to get back into this. My matchup is the toughest yet, going against RG3 and Arian Foster. My opponent also has the 49ers defense which is another reason to start AP and hope he does well.

I’m still dangling Chris Johnson in front of owners that have obvious needs at RB but have had no interest. I’ll pull all trade requests tomorrow afternoon just in case CJ2K has a big week and stock suddenly rises.

C.J. Spiller For Stevan Ridley & Mike Wallace

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It’s been a busy Tuesday for me in my Fantasy Football league as I desperately try to upgrade my running backs after two disappointing performances by Chris Johnson.  I’m happy to announce I have acquired CJ Spiller in exchange for Stevan Ridley and Mike Wallace.  Wallace has been consistent for me, putting up 9 points in Week 1 and 13 points in Week 2 but with the sudden emergence of Danny Amendola, I’m unexpectedly deep at WR.

I have several Add/Drops scheduled to process overnight that I will announce when/if they are processed Wednesday.  I also have an open roster slot I will have to fill after my 2-for-1 trade.

My roster now stands as follows:

Quarterbacks

  • Tony Romo
  • Matt Cassel

Running Backs

  • C.J. Spiller
  • Trent Richardson
  • Adrian Peterson
  • Chris Johnson

Wide Receivers

  • Marques Colston
  • Malcom Floyd
  • Danny Amendola
  • Darrius Heyward-Bay
  • Kendall Wright

Tight Ends

  • Dennis Pitta
  • Jacob Tamme

DST

  • Lions
  • Cowboys

Things could look a bit different tomorrow as I’m still trying to move Johnson for a WR. I’ll update if a deal can be made.

The Enforcers Blown Out 69-109; But Why That’s Only Half the Story

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Another week, another loss and another terrible performance by Chris Johnson. I had a deal in place to move Johnson along with Mike Wallace and Dennis Pitta for Lance Moore, CJ Spiller and Jason Witten but it was rejected (after being accepted) at the last minute.  The deal was a risk for me because I was giving up my clear WR1 to get another top-tier RB in Spiller.  I felt it was fair and it worked but it was rejected and I have to move on.

In Week 2 my team, The Enforcers, put up an abysmal 69 points but that’s only telling half the story.  My bench put up 103 points with Matt Cassel (22 points), Trent Richardson (25 points) and Danny Amendola (20) all putting up over 20 points.  Malcom Floyd, who I had sat in favor of Mike Wallace (who put up 13 points), scored 10 points, which would have been better than the 4-point performance put up by Marques Colston.  

Had my optimal lineup been in place I would have put up 124 points, which would have defeated all but one team in the league (with the league leader scoring 137 points).  I clearly have a good team, I just have to make better lineup decisions.  Here’s the box score for Week 2:

QB T. Romo 14 points

RB A. Peterson 8 points

RB S. Ridley 9 points

WR M. Colston 4 points

WR M. Wallace 13 points

TE J. Tamme 1 point

RB-WR-TE C. Johnson 2 points

K M. Crosby 13 points

DST Cowboys 5 points

Total - 69 points

Here’s my opponent:

QB E. Manning 32 points

RB L. McCoy 12 points

RB M. Turner 10 points

WR H. Nicks 25 points

WR D. Jackson 11 points

TE A. Hernandez 0 points

RB-WR-TE S. Jackson 5 points

K N. Kaeding 8 points

DST Giants 6 points

Total - 109 points

Now, I can think what could had been with my bench mob:

QB M. Cassel 22 points

WR M. Floyd 10 points

WR D. Heyward-Bey 4 points

TE D. Pitta 6 points

RB T. Richardson 25 points

WR K. Wright 8 points

WR D. Amendola 20 points

DST Lions 8 points

Total - 103 points

Ugh, back to the drawing board.  I’m number one on wavers which I will use to drop Jacob Tamme and re-add Brent Celek.  Vick targeted Celek 11 times and he ended up putting up 15 points.  He looks like a better and more reliable option than Tamme at this point.  TE’s are a dime a dozen but right now I like the upside of Celek.

More coming soon but back to work for now.

Ready to Roll into Week 2

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It’s game day!  There is nothing like the feeling of fall in the air with a day of NFL games looming.  Here’s the latest from The Enforcers:

My lineup is set and barring any last minute changes, I’m rolling with this:

QB Tony Romo

RB1 Adrian Peterson

RB2 Stevan Ridley

WR1 Marques Colston

WR2 Mike Wallace

TE Jacob Tamme

RB-WR-TE Chris Johnson

DST Cowboys

K Mason Crosby

I’m choosing Wallace over Malcom Floyd simply because I think he’s a better player and with Darrell Revis out, that leaves Antonio Cromartie to cover either Wallace or Antonio Brown.  I like my chances and am activating Wallace.

I came very close to moving Chris Johnson late last night, however, my trade partner wanted Johnson and Mike Wallace for CJ Spiller, Lance Moore and Jason Witten.  The trade would have upgraded my TE but would have been downgrade at WR and then a shot in the dark with Spiller.  On one hand, if Spiller has a repeat of last week and Johnson craps the bed again, it would have looked like the move to make.  However, if Johnson regains any of his previous form, then I’m essentially giving away my RB1 for a back that’s not even number one on his own depth chart.  Straight up I may have made the move but the addition of Wallace was too much as I don’t have a lot of quality wide outs.

Let’s go!

Start/Sit for Week 2

For some reason my decisions don’t seem to be as difficult in Week 2 as they were lastimage week.  I’m still pondering some slots but here’s my lineup as of Saturday morning:

QB - Tony Romo

RB1 - Adrian Peterson

RB2 - Stevan Ridley

WR1 - Marques Colston

WR2 - Malcom Floyd

TE - Jacob Tamme

RB/WR/TE - Chris Johnson

K - Mason Crosby 

DST - Cowboys

Mason Crosby played Thursday and put up more points than Aaron Rodgers, hitting three FGs (one for 54 yards) and two XPs for a total of 13 points in our league.  Very glad he had a bounce back week after an abysmal Week 1 performance.

Romo gave me 29 points last week against the Giants and faces a much weaker team this week against the Seahawks.  Some are calling this a “trap game” for the Cowboys and everyone knows Romo has a tendency to be erratic but I knew that when I drafted him.  The reward outweighs the risk with Romo and I’m very confident in him.

I doubted AP in Week 1 and he scored twice with limited touches.  He says he’s 95% and there’s just no way I’m not rolling him out against the Colts.  Dwight Freeney is out with an ankle, which makes the decision even easier.

Stevan Ridley had a breakout game in Week 1 against the Titans with 20 points (125 RuYd, RuTD (1), 27 ReYd) and looks to solidify himself as  ”must start” this week against the Cardinals.  Arizona gave up 115 rushing yards against the Seahawks and I’m confident that number is going to be greater against Tom Brady.  If the Pats get up big, it’s junk yardage time for Ridley.  I still can’t believe I drafted this guy in round 8.

It’s my WRs where things get interesting.  Colston crapped the bed against the Redskins last week (with only 5 points off 71 ReYds and a fumble).  He’s going to have to be better this week and I’m hoping for the production he put-up against the Panthers secondary last year (145 yards off 7 receptions).  He’s on a short-leash but the fact that Drew Brees is his QB will make me sleep better tonight.

I have Malcom Floyd in there against the Titans.  They were torched by Brady and Floyd is clearly Rivers’ number one target.  I don’t get why no one likes Floyd but he was extremely productive last year without Vincent Jackson, scored last week and I’m looking for him to find the end zone again.

My Flex is Chris Johnson.  He’ll be up against San Diego who bottled up McFadden in Week 1 but I’m hoping pride takes over here and he scores.  He’s on my trading block and there’s a chance I move him before Sunday but if not, we’ll hope for a solid game.

The Cowboys DST was sitting on my bench in Week 1 and scored 13 points against Eli Manning and company.  They face a rookie quarterback this weekend with Sydney Rice as the  number one option.  Lynch is a threat but the revamped secondary of Claiborne and Carr was impressive against the champs and their lockdown coverage is going to give Ware an opportunity to stay in Wilson’s face. 

Here’s my bench:

QB M. Cassel

WR M. Wallace

WR D. Heyward-Bey

TE D. Pitta

RB T. Richardson

WR K. Wright

WR D. Amendola

DST Lions

Mike Wallace was an automatic “sit” for me against the Jets on Revis island but with Darrelle ruled out, this gets a little more complicated.  I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t considering him at either WR1 or WR2.

Heyward-Bay faces the Dolphins but I need to see a breakout before I risk it with him. He’s Carson Palmar’s number one but there was nothing in his 4-point performance Monday night that made me feel like I need him in my lineup.

Trent Richardson is going against a Bengals team that just lost their leading tackler from last year in Thomas Howard for the season.  He’s a very intriguing option and probably has a better matchup than CJ.  Honestly, this is one of the reasons I would like to move Johnson.  Logic says Johnson over Richardson but if we’re playing match-ups, he’s got a chance to shine and will be a game time decision for me at Flex.

None of my other players are in contention for this week but I have serious decisions to make with Wallace and Richardson.  I’ll let you know what move I make.

Chris Johnson on the Trading Block

imageI’ve been working diligently all week to trade my RB1 Chris Johnson.  It’s not that I’m completely giving up on CJ, and perhaps I’m over thinking things, but with a Week 1 loss, I’m looking to make a move to shake things up.  It looks like Adrian Peterson is going to be my RB1 with Stevan Ridley and Trent Richardson my options for RB2.  That leaves Johnson as my Flex and I’m trying to find a different option.

I talked with some league owners earlier this week but was unable to land a deal.  I looked at upgrading my TE position with Jason Witten but it wasn’t meant to be.  I’m set to role with Jacob Tamme at TE this week (something I should have done in Week 1) and have dropped Brent Celek in favor of the emerging Dennis Pitta.  A lot of people are saying it’s too early to add Pitta but I know what I’m going to get with Celek (average but not great and let’s face it, 6 points against the Browns isn’t exactly exciting) so I took a gamble by picking Pitta up off wavers.  Another good week for Pitta (even though many are calling him a sit and he won’t be in my lineup) and he’ll be a hot commodity.  It’s a gamble but given the fact I see Tamme getting the majority of my TE starts, I’m not worried if he turns out to be a one-hit wonder.

I really do feel Chris Johnson still has value and the majority of fantasy football analysts agree.  My decision to move him really isn’t as much of a knee-jerk reaction as it is looking to make a move after a loss.  If I don’t move him before Sunday and he has a monster “bounce back” game, it ended up being the right move.  If I do move him, I’ll embrace the talent I get.